Each missile silo field appears to include a number of other facilities that might be launch-control centers, bases, and support facilities.Ĭonstruction of the Yumen, Hami, and Ordos missile silo fields follow shortly after construction began of half a dozen silos that we discovered at the PLARF training site near Jilantai in Inner Mongolia, initially described in September 2019 and reported expanding further in February 2021. The Ordos field, which began construction in April or May 2021, has a different layout and so far only appears to include about 40 silos (it could potentially grow later). Construction of the Hami field began in February 2021 and might eventually include 110 silos. The Yumen field began construction in March 2020 and appears to include 120 silos. The three sites are in different stages of construction. The third field near Ordos (Hanggin Banner) was disclosed by a military research unit at Air University in mid-August. The second field near Hami was disclosed by the Federation of American Scientists in late-July. The first missile silo field near Yumen was disclosed by the Middlebury Institute in late-June. (Some have even suggested they are not silos, but windmills.) But the satellite imagery that we have analyzed, combined with US government officials issuing apparent confirmations ( here, here, and here), indicate that the construction involves hundreds of missile silos.
How many silos are under construction? The Chinese government has made no official public announcement about what it is building, and the nature, scale, and role of the suspected missile silos remains uncertain. The development requires all sides to think hard about what it means for Chinese nuclear policy, how it plans to operate its nuclear forces, how other nuclear-armed states will or should respond, and what the international nuclear nonproliferation and arms control community can and should do to reduce nuclear risks. Most will probably use the disclosure to reaffirm existing beliefs.
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